Can the ladies break the sub-4 minute mile barrier?

Can the ladies break the sub-4 minute mile barrier?

Published on: 20 Jun 2025

Author: Perri Williams

Categories: Track & Field

by Perri Williams

It has been over seventy years since Roger Bannister etched his name into history by becoming the first individual to ever run a sub-four-minute mile. Back on that eventful day on 6th May, 1954 at Oxford University's Iffley Road Track, Bannister, with the help of fellow runners Chris Chataway and Chris Brasher as pacemakers, recorded a time of 3:59.4. In one weeks’, time, Nike is supporting another historic barrier - this time, in the women’s mile. Their prodigy - Faith Kipyegon.

Kipyegon, the triple Olympic champion and world mile record holder will attempt to become the first woman to run a mile in under four minutes, in an event dubbed Breaking4, on June 26th at Paris’s Stade Sébastien Charléty. Similar to Elliot Kipchoge’s Breaking2 in 2017, this attempt which is backed by Nike is much more than a race—it’s an attempt to reframe possibilities. Based on multiple pace making strategies and no time to validate the tweaking of footwear, it will not be recognised as a world record.

No woman has ever run under four minutes for the mile. The closest is Kipyegon whose existing world record stands at 4:07.64 set back in 2023. A recent study published in the Royal Society Open Science suggested that Kipyegon could run as fast as 3:59.37. This is based on modelling energy output across several pacing strategies. That still leave Kipyegon over seven seconds shy of the target. Even converting her best 1,500m time to a mile she is six seconds short of the same target. In fact the Kenyan will need to run almost two seconds per lap quicker than her world record pace to break four minutes. That is a big ask. However, the players behind the attempt believe it is still possible.

There are a number of factors that are key to Kipyegon’s attempt. Drafting is one of them. This involves a runner being sandwiched between two runners to reduce air resistance. This in turn could reduce energy output and improve speed. Based on information available so far, it seems likely that she will have a runner directly in front and behind for the first half of the race with a swap to another pair of runners at the mid-way point.

Footwear and Clothing is another factor. Nike are of course one of the world leaders in shoe technology. For this attempt they have looked at clothing and have developed a “new salvo of cutting-edge technology” that aims to bridge that seven second gap. Kipyegon will don the ‘Nike Fly Suit’, a newly developed speed suit that’s complemented with a matching headband, leg and arm sleeves. The suit is made of a slick, stretchy material and is dotted with aeronodes. These aeronodes are designed to negate wind resistance and create small eddies behind Kipyegon. According to the scientists as Kipyegon “she cuts through the air at a speed of 24 kilometres per hour, the aeronodes are made to keep her "slippery" in the wind and minimise drag”. (Lisa Gibson, Nike). There will also be a 3D printed sports bra.

In terms of footwear, it is anticipated that she will wear a remodelled version of the Nike Victory 2. The Victory 2 are her preferred track spikes and the ones she wore when she set the existing mile record. The final version will only be available this week. Similar to Eliud Kipchoge’s sub-2-hour marathon attempt, the attempt at the sub-4-minute mile will not be recognised as a world record attempt.

"I’ve been the best miler on the track, the fastest 1,000 metres, the fastest 1,500… We decided it's high time to think about empowering girls and inspiring the next generation in pushing barriers," Kipyegon said in an interview with training partner Eliud Kipchoge.

In the seventy-one years since Roger Bannister ran the world’s first sub-4-minute mile, the men’s mark has improved by 16 seconds to the currently world record which was set by Hicham El Guerrouj (Morocco) in Rome on July 7, 1999. In those seventy-one years the ladies progression has been significantly better. Twenty-three days after Banister’s momentous breakthrough British athlete Diane Leather had a breakthrough in the ladies’ mile. Leather broke the sub-5-minute barrier. Though records were only recorded for ladies up to 880 yards at that point. In the 13 years that it took to ratify ladies mile records Anne Rosemary Smith went twenty-two seconds faster to set the first world record of 4:37.0 in London. Six years later the ladies were running sub 4:30. A steady progression led to the 1996 time of 4:12.56 set by Svetlana Masterkova (RUS) in Zurich. It took twenty-three years for that mark to be broken and that was by Sifan Hassan (Netherlands) who lowered the world mark to 4;12.33 in Monaco in 2019. This was the record that Kipyegon broke on the same track by almost five seconds two years ago.

In Ireland the fastest any Irish lady has ever run has been 4:14.58, a record set by Ciara Mageean two years ago. This time currently stands at 5th on the World All-Time list, seven seconds behind Kipyegon and two behind that of Hassan. Yet in the 19 years between Mageean’s record and the previous best set by Sonia O’Sullivan the time has improved by three seconds. (Incidentally O’Sullivan stands at 21st on that same All-Time list). No doubt Sarah Healy might make further in-roads into that time as her best of 4:27.03 (a national u23 record) is from three years ago. Who would have thought that the 4:30.37 recorded by Mary Purcell back in 1980 would be improved by over 13 seconds in the fourteen years that O’Sullivan took to set her time of 4:17.25. But yet it did. Is it time we started to reframe our thoughts on what is possible with modern science, technology and a more professional approach for today’s athletes?

Five years ago Sonia O’Sullivan wrote in the Irish Times “To me it seems quite far-fetched to think a woman could ever break 4 minutes for the Mile” and that was based on the then 4;12.33 record set the previous year by Hassan. At that time an improvement of over three seconds per lap was required. O’Sullivan was not alone with this belief. The world was beside her. Yet here we are five years later, armed with super shoes and science and we are looking at making just a two second improvement per lap and a jump of seven seconds and according to the scientists it is possible.

And what has Kipyegon herself to say on the attempt? In a recent press release she said “I’m a three-time Olympic champion. I’ve achieved World Championship titles. I thought, What else? Why not dream outside the box? And I told myself, ‘If you believe in yourself, and your team believes in you, you can do it.’” Kipyegon has been training at altitude in her native Kenya and will race next week in France. Should she achieve what many still consider impossible she will inspire a world of female athletes to dream big and consider more possibilities. The world will be watching, waiting and hypothesising about the possibilities.