With Storm Austen bringing heavy rain and strong winds to Ireland ahead of the Bank Holiday weekend, there has been plenty of reason for runners to keep a nervous eye on the forecast.
But there may be some good news.
As of Thursday morning, October 22nd, the latest forecasts suggest conditions could improve considerably in time for Sunday's Irish Life Dublin Marathon, with cool temperatures, sunny spells and largely dry weather currently predicted for Dublin.
There is, however, one potential complication.
The wind.
Because apparently running 42.195 kilometres wasn't challenging enough on its own.
What Is the Latest Forecast for Sunday?
According to Met Éireann's latest forecast, Dublin is expected to enjoy relatively favourable conditions on Sunday October 25th, with temperatures hovering around 8°C to 11°C during much of the marathon.
The national forecaster is currently predicting a dry start to the day, with sunny spells and little rainfall indicated for Dublin during the race itself.
Temperatures are expected to be approximately 9°C around 9am, rising to around 11°C by midday.
For marathon runners, that's a reasonably encouraging outlook.
Cool conditions generally make it easier for the body to regulate its temperature during prolonged exercise, reducing the additional strain associated with running in warmer weather.
Of course, not everybody enjoys standing around in 8°C weather wearing a running vest and a pair of shorts.
But once you've covered the first few kilometres, there's a reasonable chance you'll be grateful for the cooler air.
Particularly when you reach the latter stages and your body begins questioning some of your more recent decisions.
The Wind Could Be the Bigger Problem
While the temperature and rainfall forecasts look promising, Sunday's wind could make things considerably more interesting.
Met Éireann's Thursday morning outlook indicates westerly winds of approximately 27km/h around 9am, increasing to around 31km/h by midday.
And while that might not sound particularly dramatic, anyone who has spent several hours running into a headwind will understand the problem.
A moderate breeze can be perfectly pleasant when it's pushing you along.
When it's blowing directly into your face, however, it can feel like somebody has attached a parachute to your back.
The Dublin Marathon takes runners through the city centre, Phoenix Park, Castleknock, Crumlin, Terenure and Clonskeagh before returning towards Mount Street.
With so many changes in direction, runners could encounter a mixture of headwinds, tailwinds and crosswinds throughout the course.
The precise impact will depend on the wind direction and strength on Sunday morning, as well as how exposed individual sections are.
For anyone chasing a personal best, the sensible approach will be to avoid wasting energy fighting particularly difficult stretches.
And if you find yourself running directly behind a group of other runners for shelter, don't feel too guilty.
You've paid your entry fee.
You might as well get some value out of the people in front of you.
But What About Storm Austen?
The biggest weather concern heading into the weekend is Storm Austen, which is expected to bring heavy rain and strong winds to Ireland on Thursday night and into Friday morning.
Met Éireann has issued a Status Orange rainfall warning for Dublin, Wexford and Wicklow, valid from 2am until 8am on Friday.
Flooding and difficult travelling conditions are among the potential impacts.
Saturday is also expected to bring unsettled weather, with rain and strong winds affecting parts of the country.
Not exactly ideal conditions for anybody travelling to Dublin or making their way to the marathon expo.
Thankfully, the current forecast suggests the worst of that weather may have passed by Sunday morning.
However, Met Éireann has warned that another area of low pressure could influence conditions over the Bank Holiday weekend.
That means Sunday's outlook is not guaranteed, and there is still scope for changes to the wind and rainfall forecast.
For now, the signs are encouraging.
But this is Ireland.
Forecasting sunshine three days in advance is essentially inviting the atmosphere to prove you wrong.
Could Sunday Actually Be a Good Day for a Marathon?
Potentially, yes.
If the latest forecast holds, temperatures around 8°C to 12°C, plenty of dry weather and occasional sunshine could offer comfortable conditions for distance running.
The main question is how much of an impact the wind will have.
A strong headwind over several kilometres can increase the effort required to maintain pace, particularly in the second half of a marathon when fatigue is already taking its toll.
Runners should also be prepared for conditions to feel cooler while waiting at the start line than they will once the race gets underway.
An old jumper or disposable outer layer for the wait before the start could be useful, provided it is discarded safely in accordance with the organisers' instructions.
As always, avoid making dramatic changes to your race plan based on a forecast that could still change.
There's no point spending four months preparing for a marathon only to completely reinvent your strategy because an app has predicted a 14km/h crosswind.
And There's One More Thing to Remember
Sunday October 25th is also the day the clocks go back in Ireland.
At 2am, the clocks return to 1am, giving everyone an extra hour.
For marathon runners, this is potentially excellent news.
An additional hour in bed on the morning of a marathon is probably the most generous thing the universe has done for you since you started training.
Just make sure any clocks or alarms that don't update automatically have been adjusted.
The wheelchair race begins at 8.40am, followed by the first marathon running wave at 8.45am, with subsequent waves setting off at 9.05am, 9.25am and 9.45am.
Turning up an hour late because you forgot about the clock change would be an impressive way to waste several months of preparation.
So, What's the Verdict?
As things stand on Thursday October 22nd, Sunday's Dublin Marathon weather forecast is looking considerably better than the unsettled conditions expected across Ireland in the preceding days.
Cool temperatures, a reasonable prospect of dry weather and some sunshine are all encouraging.
The wind remains the biggest concern, particularly for runners chasing ambitious finishing times.
But there are still three days to go, and forecasts can change as newer information becomes available.
For now, runners can be cautiously optimistic.
After all, you've already survived months of early mornings, long runs, sore legs and the psychological trauma of paying €200 for running shoes.
A bit of wind shouldn't be the thing that finishes you off.
The only certainty is that, come Sunday morning, somebody will still be checking the weather forecast while standing on the start line.
