by Perri Williams
Eight ladies will line up for Friday’s 400m final. A final which includes Ireland’s Rhasidat Adeleke. Ireland’s first ever Olympic Sprint finalist. Like every final, the conversation inevitably resorts to a hypothesis of how the race will be run and who will eventually climb that podium.
Today the ladies will rest. Some nervous. Some confident. Some experienced. Some first-time Olympians. Some finding themselves reaching an Olympic final they never thought possible. Despite their differences one thing all these ladies have in common is, when they line up for their 400m on Friday night, it will no longer be good enough just to be an Olympian, they want nothing short of being an Olympic champion. Interestingly, none of Friday’s finalist have come from the repechage rounds.
On paper Jamaica's Nickisha Pryce should be in the final. Pryce ran the fastest time in the World this year 48.57 at the Diamond League in London three weeks ago. It was not the first time she had dipped under 49 seconds either. The Jamaican has two of the three fastest times this year but ran out of steam coming down the home straight in the semi-final and finished a surprise fourth in 50.77 to miss out on Friday's final. The heart-breaking cruelty of sport. But then ubiquitously the Olympic Games always throws up a funnel of surprises, throwing hypothesis into an algorithm of confusion and disarray.
Also missing is Shauna Miller-Uibo. Miller-Uibo, the Rio and Tokyo Olympic Games 400m gold medallist was intent on chasing a hat-trick of Olympic titles in Paris. Enter the nefarious face of injury, a sentential block to her preparation. The defence of her title ended this week as she finished last in the repechage, almost five seconds slower than her best. It was her choice to run. Knowing her less than par form and she poses no regrets for doing so.
Eliminating the second and seventh fastest in the world this year; Sydney McLoughlin-Levrone and Femke Bol, this leaves Poland's Natalia Kaczmarek as the season’s fastest woman in Friday’s final and Ireland’s Rhasidat Adeleke as the second fastest. Kaczmarek didn’t have it all her way in the semi-final, going stride for stride on the home straight with Briton Amber Anning, who ran a personal best of 49.47 to qualify. Anning, the fourth fastest qualifier from the semi-finals has consistently run sub 50 this season, all the time edging downwards to new personal bests. The question is; has the PB she set while qualifying taken too much out of her AND is a time like this or marginally better even good enough to get an Olympic medal? Kaczmarek on the other hand is very experienced and has set a personal best in London just a few weeks ago of 48.90, a time that on paper should see her top the podium. As palpable as this theory sounds, it takes more than a fast time to guarantee a medal at the Olympics, let alone a gold one. In her favour Kaczmarek looks so much stronger this year, suggesting she has more power during the final stages of her races than previously. This was something she has demonstrated already in Rome, where she won that European gold and at the Diamond League in London, where she set her personal best in finishing second to the surprise winner Nickisha Pryce.
However, of all the finalists, Dominican Republic's 2023 world champion Marileidy Paulino looked the most comfortable, easing down to qualify in 49.21 just one hundredth of a second off her seasons best which she set at the Diamond League in Paris a month ago. This is still almost half a second off her personal best of 48.76 which she set in Budapest last year. At 27 the Dominican Republic athlete is the oldest in the field. Her path into athletics is less traditional than most, taking up running at 18, she was recruited by the country’s minister for sport after spotting her playing handball. Thus, unlike athletes like Adeleke, Williams, Anning and Kaczmarek – Paulino did not have that natural progression from major championships at u18, right through to senior. Outside of the Pan-American games, her first major appearance was at the Tokyo Olympics where she took silver in the 400m, the Dominican Republic’s first ever individual medal. She turned her 2022 world silver medal into gold in Budapest last year. Ironically, we have to go back to the Paris Diamond League to look at her form compared to some of the other finalist. In Paris on July 7th, it was Paulino who crossed the line first with a seasonal best of 49.20. Second was Kaczmarek and third was Bahrain's Salwa Eid Naser.
In the semi-final on Wednesday, we saw Naser moving towards the form she displayed when winning the World Championships in Doha in 2019 – producing a speedy final 100m to clock a season’s best of 49.08 Thus leaving a fading and jagged Adeleke in her wake.
At the 2014 World Youths, Nigerian born Salwa Eid Naser became the focus of attention when she won silver in the 400m wearing a hijab and a full bodysuit. Five years later at the World Championships in Doha, minus the hijab and at just twenty-one years of age, she became the youngest ever women’s 400m world champion with a time of 48.14. This is still the third fastest of all time. Back then some scepticism surrounded her rise to success, beating champions like Miller-Uibo. But then such speculation and scepticism often shadow outstanding athletes, sparking potentially fruitless discussions. Then she was hit with a two-year ban for missed drug tests causing her to miss the Tokyo Olympics and the World Championships in Oregon a year later.
Then we have Rhasidat Adeleke, the second fastest time this season amongst the finalists. Adeleke looked fatigued and ragged as she tried to inject pace and move with Naser over the final 100m in the semi-final. It was the same power that she lacked as she tried to over-take Kaczmarek at the European Championships in Rome. However, one should remember that in Rome Adeleke had two rounds of a relay in her legs, Kaczmarek had none. “That was just very messy, a very messy race,” she told RTÉ, after the semi-final. “I’m just really excited that I’m able to get into the final and fix everything I did there.” The Irish public are most certainly behind Adeleke, a juvenile prodigy who has already medalled at u18 and u20 majors and is Ireland’s first Olympic sprint finalist. Her training partner Julien Alfred the Olympic 100m champion claimed just this week that Adeleke was “in the shape of her life”.
Another athlete that comes with pedigree is Sada Williams. Two-time world championships bronze medallist (2022, 2023) was the first Barbadian woman to win a world championships medal. She has a season’s best of 49.80 which she achieved at the Jamaican championships in June. Her third-place time in the semi-final was just nine hundredths of a second off that pace and she was the fifth fastest qualifier from the semi-finals. She will have to run close to 49 flat if not under to get a medal.
This leaves American Alexis Holmes and Norwegian Henrietta Jaegar as the remaining two finalists. Holmes won bronze at this year’s world indoors in Glasgow. However, she is probably most remembered for running the anchor leg in the 4x400m in Budapest, where she challenged Femke Bol in the closing few metres. The Dutch athlete stumbled, fell and dropped the baton inches before the line. Holmes split 48.82 in that relay. She finished fourth in the Diamond League in Paris, ahead of Leike Klaver, who did not make tomorrow’s final. She has a best of 49.78 which she recorded when finishing third in the American trials in June. As the only American in the final, her Olympic dream has already come true. Consistently running around the 50 flat mark, she would have to produce a herculean effort to win Friday’s final.
Henrietta Jaegar comes with sporting pedigree. Her mother (also her coach) represented Norway in hammer at the 1998 European Championships. At the Résisprint International, in Switzerland on July 2nd she set a Norwegian 400m record of 49.85 when finishing second to Salwa Eid Naser’s 49.66. This is the only time she has run faster than 50 seconds. Jaeger was third in the semi-final behind Adeleke. Like Holmes, she would have to produce a herculean effort to challenge for a medal.
With details of the eight finalists, you can now speculate who will win gold. Given a fast race, some of these athletes do have the potential to break the 1996 Olympic record set by French woman Marie Jose Perec. The 1985 World record of 47.60 set by East German Marita Koch still looks out of reach. With the top four so close in time, it is likely however, to come down to who has the most power over the final 400m. Be prepared for surprises.